WiFi Odds
Inflight WiFi as a forecast · figures checked daily · this build 25 Jul 2026
Systems · evergreen · reviewed July 2026

Inflight WiFi systems, compared

Every score on this site rests on one distinction: low-earth orbit or geostationary. This page is that distinction in full. Starlink against Amazon Leo head to head, then every system flying on the airlines we track, with what each one does in the cabin, what it costs, and the weight it carries in ConnectScore.

Starlink vs Amazon Leo

the two low-earth-orbit camps

These are the only two systems this site treats as next-gen, they are technically the same idea, and exactly one of them is carrying passengers. That asymmetry is the single most important fact on this page, and it is why Delta’s next-gen score is 0 while its ConnectScore is one of the highest here.

Starlink SpaceXAmazon Leo Amazon, ex-Kuiper
Flying on a passenger aircraft todayYes. 15 of the 18 airlines here, 1,272 aircraft in this set alone. ReportedNo. Not one passenger aircraft, anywhere. Reported
Advertised per-aircraft speedUp to 250 Mbps on United, 350 on airBaltic, 500 on Qatar, from two radomes. Vendor claimUp to 1 Gbps down and 400 Mbps up simultaneously, from one antenna. On paper that is an order of magnitude more upload, and a single-day install. Vendor claim
What a passenger has actually measuredPer-device medians of 64 to 85 Mbps in two peer-reviewed studies; per-airline medians of 152 to 320 Mbps at Ookla. The two disagree by a factor of two to five and nobody has explained why. MeasuredNothing. Zero aircraft, so zero measurements. Every Leo number in circulation is a spec sheet. Measured
Constellation deployedOver 8,000 satellites operational. ReportedAbout 390 to 400 of a planned 3,232, which is roughly an eighth. Reported
Airlines committed46 programs industry-wide: 4 fully deployed, 17 installing, 25 signed (July 2026).jetBlue (2027, Amazon Leo); Delta (2028, Amazon Leo signed for 500 aircraft).
First in serviceJSX finished its entire fleet before anyone else started.jetBlue, from 2027, a year ahead of Delta’s 500 aircraft.
How ConnectScore treats itSystem quality 1.00, which is the ceiling.System quality 1.00 when it flies, and a next-gen score of zero on every airline until then. A deal you cannot connect to is not connectivity.
What would change our mindA fleet finishing: once a carrier is at 97% the odds question dies of success and the interesting number becomes speed on the day.The first jetBlue aircraft in service. That is the day Leo stops being a press release in this data set and starts being a number.

Vendor claim Starlink per-aircraft figures: United, airBaltic and Qatar Airways statements, 2025 to 2026. Amazon Leo antenna specification: Amazon, 13 Apr 2026.

Measured Per-device medians: Jang et al., ACM IMC ’25, and Ullah et al., arXiv:2508.09839, Aug 2025. Per-airline medians: Ookla Speedtest Intelligence, 30 Jun 2025 and 28 Apr 2026. Constellation counts: GeekWire and Via Satellite, 2 to 8 Jul 2026, against the FCC licence for 3,232.

Why the measured numbers disagree by two to five times, and the ten mechanisms behind it →

Signed for Amazon Leo

jetBlueDelta

Zero aircraft in service. Both fleets run free streaming-class Viasat until the hardware arrives.

Why the gap matters

A signed deal changes nothing about the flight you are booking this month. It changes a great deal about the one you book in 2028. That is why the race page tracks both, and why neither number is allowed to stand in for the other.

The rollout race →

Every system, end to end

how it works · what it does · what it weighs

The last column is the multiplier this system contributes to ConnectScore. It is read straight out of the scoring table rather than typed here, so the primer and the formula cannot drift apart.

SystemHow it worksReal-world speedReliabilityPrice onboardQualityAirlines here
Starlink
SpaceX · Low-earth orbit, ~550 km
An electronically-steered flat-panel antenna on the crown of the aircraft talks to whichever of thousands of satellites is overhead, and the satellites relay between themselves by laser. Nothing mechanical has to swing to track a bird.100+ Mbps advertised; roughly 20–80 Mbps in the cabin in practice, and tens of milliseconds of latency rather than hundreds.Gate to gate, including mid-ocean and high-latitude routes where geostationary coverage thins out. Degrades with a full cabin like anything else.Free on every carrier in this set that has it, sometimes gated behind a free-to-join loyalty programme.1.00airBaltic, JSX, ZIPAIR, Air France, WestJet, Hawaiian, Qatar Airways, SAS, United, Alaska, Virgin Atlantic, Emirates, Air Canada, British Airways, Southwest
signed: American 2027-Q1
Amazon Leo
Amazon · Low-earth orbit
The same physics class as Starlink: a large low-orbit constellation and a flat-panel aircraft antenna. Formerly Project Kuiper.No measurement exists. Not one passenger aircraft is flying it, so nobody has run the test. There will be a number here when there is a number to publish.Unproven in service. JetBlue is first, from 2027; Delta follows on 500 aircraft from 2028.Announced as free on both launch carriers.1.00none in this set
signed: jetBlue 2027, Delta 2028
Viasat
Viasat · Geostationary, 35,786 km
One very large satellite parked over the equator, painting spot beams down onto the route network. The aircraft antenna points at a fixed spot in the sky.Streaming-class: enough for video, uploads and a working session. The distance costs you roughly half a second of round-trip lag no matter how much bandwidth is available.Coverage thins at high latitude and over open ocean, and a full cabin on a popular route feels it. Delta Sync and American’s free WiFi are both this. One caveat sits under every US Viasat figure on this site: ViaSat-3 F1 failed to deploy its antenna and delivers an estimated 5 to 10% of design throughput (Runway Girl Network, 10 Feb 2026), and every US measurement to date went through that satellite.Free for members on American, Delta and jetBlue.0.55American, Delta, jetBlue
2Ku
Intelsat / Gogo · Geostationary
Two Ku-band antennas under a low-profile radome, an older generation of the same geostationary idea.Streaming-class on a good day, noticeably less on a busy one.Widely fitted and well understood; the weak link is capacity per aircraft, not coverage.Varies by carrier; often paid or loyalty-gated.0.55none in this set
Panasonic
Panasonic Avionics · Geostationary
The previous generation of Ku-band service, mechanically-steered on many installations.Email, messaging, a web page if you are patient. Not a working connection.Predictably poor rather than unpredictable. It is the fleet remainder on carriers whose "free WiFi" announcement excluded the widebodies.Usually paid, and usually not worth it.0.22none in this set
Gogo ATG-4
Gogo · None. Ground towers, pointed up
An antenna under the fuselage talks to a network of cell towers on the ground. No satellite is involved, which is why it stops at the coastline.0.1 to 0.8 Mbps per device, an order of magnitude below legacy satellite. Latency is 260 to 310 ms against geostationary’s 750, and three quarters of measured tests lose no packets at all.Steady over the continental US and absent everywhere else.Paid.0.12none in this set

Quality weights from the ConnectScore table · carrier lists derived from the same airline data as every other page · fleet counts as of 2026-07-25.

ConnectScore is an expected value over a whole fleet, not a prediction about one flight: United measured 320, 56 and 15 Mbps on three systems in one livery in one reporting period. Aircraft whose system an airline does not publish are left out of the denominator rather than assumed. Signed-but-unflown deals (AA Starlink 2027, DL/B6 Amazon Leo) score zero until they fly.

The questions people actually ask

methodology →

Is Starlink actually better than Delta’s WiFi, or is that just marketing?

Both things are true and they answer different questions. Delta Sync is free, fleetwide, and genuinely streaming-class, so you can work on it. Starlink is a low-earth-orbit system roughly 60 times closer to the aircraft than a geostationary satellite, so the lag is tens of milliseconds instead of about half a second, and it keeps working mid-ocean and at high latitude where geostationary coverage thins out. If your flight is four hours of real work, the difference is noticeable. If it is email and a film, it is not.

What is Amazon Leo, and does any airline have it?

Amazon Leo is Amazon’s low-earth-orbit constellation, formerly Project Kuiper, and the same physics class as Starlink. No passenger aircraft is flying it yet. jetBlue is first, from 2027; Delta signed for 500 aircraft from 2028. Because nothing is in the air, both airlines score zero for next-gen odds on this site, and we publish no speed figure for Leo anywhere. There is no in-cabin measurement to publish.

Why does “free WiFi” not tell you whether it is good?

Because the two are unrelated. American launched free WiFi across about 90% of its fleet in January 2026, and it is Viasat and Intelsat: streaming-class, geostationary, with the widebodies on older Panasonic hardware left out of the offer entirely. Free and fast are separate axes, which is why ConnectScore multiplies them instead of picking one.

Which system will my flight have?

That depends on the aircraft, not the airline, which is the whole problem. For United we hold a per-tail archive and can give you the odds for your actual flight number. For every other carrier all we have is the fleet share plus the aircraft type on your itinerary. The race page has each fleet’s current split and its finish line.

Does more bandwidth fix the lag?

No, and this is the one piece of physics worth knowing. A geostationary satellite sits 35,786 km up; the round trip is about half a second no matter how fast the link is. Low-earth orbit is roughly 550 km, so the delay is tens of milliseconds. Bandwidth decides whether video streams; distance decides whether the connection feels alive.

Add an observation

What the record cannot see

Every speed on this page was measured by somebody with a laptop at 35,000 feet. The measured column is thin because that is a hard test to run — and one more reading on a system nobody has published lately moves it further than anything I can write here.

The captive portal usually names it.

Every submission lands unpublished and a person reads it before it appears here. No account, no cookie, no email field. The full form, with speed and latency boxes, is on the methodology page.

Reported Fleet and per-tail verification for United, Alaska and Hawaiian: unitedstarlinktracker.com and alaskastarlinktracker.com (@martinamps), 25 JUL 2026. Every other airline from public airline announcements, Jul 2026. Full credit and citation →