WiFi Odds
Inflight WiFi as a forecast · figures checked daily · this build 25 Jul 2026
First halfThe recordthe odds, with the source and the date on every figure
The check

Will you be able to work on that flight?

Type the flight number and you get three things: the odds it draws next-gen WiFi, what is on board when it does not, and how far to lean on both. Every figure on this site names its source and its date. No account, nothing stored. The page runs in two halves — the record first, then the companion, a Chrome extension that carries the same odds onto the page where you book.

5%

UA2451 · ORD → IAH

Odds this departure draws a Starlink aircraft

long shot

Starlink came up on 5% of this flight’s last 10 departures (tracker history, 25 Jul 2026). Plan the trip around the older cabin, and carry something to do offline.

The umbrella: aircraft assignments firm up about two days out, so re-check at T-48h. If you drew a dud, UA1799 on the same route pulled a Starlink tail on 61% of its last 10 departures, and the route optimizer ranks all 4 of them. Rank this route →

Reported · flight history from unitedstarlinktracker.com, 25 JUL 2026 · confidence medium, 10 observations

The board

Where all 18 airlines stand

the sortable leaderboard →

3 fleets are finished, 12 are mid-retrofit and 3 have signed for hardware that has not flown, counted 25 Jul 2026. The middle of a rollout is where odds are worth having: before it everyone is on old hardware, and after it the question dies of success.

The seven a US traveller is most likely to board, best next-gen odds first

#AirlineConnectScoreScore drawn as a barTierNext-gen oddsRolloutProjected · grey, never sorts
01airBalticBT100 goodC100Finished·
02JSXXE100 goodC100Finished·
03ZIPAIRZG100 goodC100Finished·
04Air FranceAF80 goodC75Installing now·
05WestJetWS72 goodC72Installing now·
06HawaiianHA64 goodC64Installing now·
07Qatar AirwaysQR61 goodC58Installing now·
08AlaskaAS55 mixedB28Installing now·
09jetBlueB655 mixedD0Signed, nothing flying25begins 2027, complete 2028SOFT
10SASSK52 mixedC49Installing now·
11AmericanAA51 mixedD0Signed, nothing flying51installs begin 2027-Q1FIRM
12DeltaDL49 mixedD0Signed, nothing flying38begins 2028FIRM
13UnitedUA48 mixedA30Installing now·
14Virgin AtlanticVS39 long shotC28Installing now·
15EmiratesEK31 long shotC16Installing now·
16Air CanadaAC18 long shotC6Installing now·
17SouthwestWN16 long shotD0Installing now37300+ by end-2026, installs runningFIRM
18British AirwaysBA15 long shotC2Installing now·

On a phone this board drops the score bar, the rollout phase and the projected column to fit. Each airline’s own page carries all of it, projections included.

Ranked on what is flying today, 25 Jul 2026. Bands: good 60 to 100, mixed 40 to 59, long shot 1 to 39, not yet 0. The tier column is how the row was derived: A resolves your aircraft to a registration, B stops at the aircraft type, C is the airline’s own published fleet count and D is a signed deal with nothing in the air. ConnectScore is an expected value over a whole fleet, not a prediction about one flight: United measured 320, 56 and 15 Mbps on three systems in one livery in one reporting period. Aircraft whose system an airline does not publish are left out of the denominator rather than assumed. Signed-but-unflown deals (AA Starlink 2027, DL/B6 Amazon Leo) score zero until they fly.

Reported Tail verification for United, Alaska and Hawaiian: unitedstarlinktracker.com and alaskastarlinktracker.com, both by @martinamps, 25 JUL 2026. Every other airline from public airline announcements, Jul 2026. The full credit.

How sure we are, and the fourth number: the written record carries the confidence ladder, the projection fence and the observation channels in full.

The race

Installed Starlink tails

month by month →
  • 481 United, daily history drawn
  • 99 Alaska, today’s count
  • 42 Hawaiian, today’s count

Reported Counts from unitedstarlinktracker.com and alaskastarlinktracker.com (@martinamps), 25 JUL 2026. United is the one carrier with a published day-by-day archive, so it is the one drawn as a line.

Second halfThe companionthe same odds, in the browser where you book
The one pitch on this site

A badge on every flight in the results

WiFi Odds for Flights is a Chrome extension, free in the Chrome Web Store under that name. On a united.com or app.navan.com results page every flight picks up an odds badge, one click re-sorts the page by odds while prices and times stay put, and a panel ranks the route’s departures the way the answer card above does. No account and no tracking, there or here. The pictures are captures of the shipped build.

Real screenshots · v1.5.1united.com · app.navan.com
A real united.com search for DEN to SFO. The extension has added a green “49%” Starlink odds badge to the 11:17 AM flight and a blue “44%” badge to the 7:25 PM flight, and its route panel is open at the lower right listing every flight on the route by odds.
  1. 1Search

    You search united.com the way you always do. The extension adds nothing to the page until there are results on it, and it never touches the booking or the payment steps.

  2. 2Odds

    Every result picks up its own badge: how often that flight number has actually drawn a Starlink aircraft. 49% here, 44% on the next one. Once the assigned tail is confirmed equipped the badge shows a ✓ instead of a percentage.

  3. 3Sort

    One click reorders the whole page best-odds-first, prices and times untouched, so you can see what the good connection actually costs you. Same panel on Navan as on united.com.

  4. 4Guard

    The panel names what it cannot know yet: tails firm up around 48 hours out. Watching that window after you book is the Tail-swap Guardian, which is built, in test, and ships in 2.1.

Captured on the real united.com and Navan with the store build. Nothing here is a mockup. The percentages in the badges are the odds the extension actually computed for that route.

Reported · departure histories from unitedstarlinktracker.com, 25 JUL 2026 · badges use the board’s bands and the same numbers this site publishes, so when the record is wrong the badge is wrong the same way

No accounts, no analytics, no tracking. It keeps your settings on your own machine and phones nothing home. Unofficial, and not affiliated with any airline, Navan, SpaceX/Starlink or the trackers.

Reported Store version and coverage read off the Chrome Web Store listing body, 24 Jul 2026, rather than off the repository manifest, which is already at 2.0.0.

Add an observation

Installs stop at the cabin door. If you flew this month, thirty seconds is a data point nobody else has.

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