Every airline we score, ordered by how much of its fleet is flying Starlink or Amazon Leo today, with the finish line each one has committed to in public. 3 fleets are done. 12 are mid-retrofit, which is the only phase where per-flight odds mean anything. 3 have signed for hardware that is not in the air, and those score zero here until it is.
Reported Fleet counts: unitedstarlinktracker.com and alaskastarlinktracker.com (@martinamps), 25 JUL 2026. Finish lines and committed aircraft counts from the airlines' own announcements, dated in the last column of the table.
Read the two middle columns together. Next-gen today is the odds of drawing a low-earth-orbit aircraft on a flight that has not been assigned one yet. Today’s tier is what you get on the rest of the fleet, which is the part a single score hides: streaming-class is a working connection with lag, basic is email and messaging, and the two are not interchangeable on a four-hour transcon.
| Airline | Next-gen today | Today’s tier | Finish line | Projected · does not sort |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSXXE | 100% Starlink | next-gen fleetwide | complete | Rollout complete |
| airBalticBT | 100% Starlink | next-gen fleetwide | complete | Rollout complete |
| ZIPAIRZG | 100% Starlink | next-gen fleetwide | complete | Rollout complete |
| Air FranceAF | 75% Starlink | mixed · rest basic | no public completion date | Nothing signed |
| WestJetWS | 72% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | mainline install all but finished; no plan announced for Encore | Nothing signed |
| HawaiianHA | 64% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | widebody fit nearly complete | Nothing signed |
| Qatar AirwaysQR | 58% Starlink | mixed · rest basic | no public completion date | Nothing signed |
| SASSK | 49% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | no public completion date | Nothing signed |
| UnitedUA | 30% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | 500+ mainline by end-2026, ~800 aircraft in total | Nothing signed |
| AlaskaAS | 28% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class | full completion targeted end-2027 | Nothing signed |
| Virgin AtlanticVS | 28% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | no public completion date | Nothing signed |
| EmiratesEK | 16% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | full widebody fleet by mid-2027; 150 aircraft targeted by end-2026 | Nothing signed |
| Air CanadaAC | 6% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | no public completion date | Nothing signed |
| British AirwaysBA | 2% Starlink | mixed · rest basic | PAUSED for summer 2026 | Nothing signed |
| SouthwestWN | <1% Starlink | mixed · rest streaming-class or basic | ramping through summer 2026 | 37300+ by end-2026, installs runningFIRM Announced 22 JUN 2026 |
| AmericanAA | 0% none flying | streaming-class · rest basic | installs begin Q1 2027 | 51installs begin 2027-Q1FIRM Announced 26 MAY 2026 |
| DeltaDL | 0% none flying | streaming-class · rest basic | Amazon Leo from 2028 | 38begins 2028FIRM Announced 31 MAR 2026 |
| jetBlueB6 | 0% none flying | streaming-class | Amazon Leo from 2027 | 25begins 2027, complete 2028SOFT Announced 4 SEP 2025 |
18 airlines · fleet counts as of 2026-07-25 · finish lines from public announcements, July 2026 · nothing here is fetched live.
A signed deal scores zero on today’s odds and always will, because nothing is flying. Readers still want to know what the signature is worth, so there is a fourth number for it. Adding it was the riskiest change on this site: a forward-looking figure sitting beside a measured one gets read as measured. The five rules below are what stop that, and a build tripwire enforces every one of them on the bytes that ship.
projected next-gen odds = committed aircraft ÷ the known-fleet denominator × 1.00 low-earth orbit × free-for-you
horizon = the announced start, and the completion date where one is published
51installs begin 2027-Q1FIRM
Reported Runway Girl Network, 2026-05-26: American pivots to Starlink for 500+ Airbus narrowbodies, 26 MAY 2026.
500 of 989 aircraft committed × 1.00 low-earth orbit × 1.00 free-for-you
A committed share of the fleet, not a measurement. None of them are flying it yet. Today it scores next-gen 0 and ConnectScore 51, and those are the two numbers that describe the flight you can book this month.
38begins 2028FIRM
Reported Delta news release and Amazon news release, both 2026-03-31, 31 MAR 2026.
500 of 1,330 aircraft committed × 1.00 low-earth orbit × 1.00 free-for-you
A committed share of the fleet, not a measurement. Amazon Leo has no aircraft in the air, and no passenger has measured it. Today it scores next-gen 0 and ConnectScore 49, and those are the two numbers that describe the flight you can book this month.
37300+ by end-2026, installs runningFIRM
Reported Southwest: the 300-by-year-end target, restated when N8543Z entered service, 22 JUN 2026.
300 of 803 aircraft committed × 1.00 low-earth orbit × 1.00 free-for-you
A committed share of the fleet, not a measurement. 1 of them is flying it today. Today it scores next-gen 0 and ConnectScore 16, and those are the two numbers that describe the flight you can book this month.
25begins 2027, complete 2028SOFT
Reported JetBlue press release, 2025-09-04; sub-fleet detail from secondary reporting, 4 SEP 2025.
25% of 291 aircraft committed × 1.00 low-earth orbit × 1.00 free-for-you
A committed share of the fleet, not a measurement. Amazon Leo has no aircraft in the air, and no passenger has measured it. Today it scores next-gen 0 and ConnectScore 55, and those are the two numbers that describe the flight you can book this month.
Every table on this site ranks on what is flying today. The projected column says "does not sort" in its own header, and its header carries no sort key for the client script to find.
Green, amber and red mean measured. A projection is grey outline on every surface, including the API render hints and the extension badge.
The value, the horizon phrase and the confidence word are one element. There is no bare projected integer anywhere in the model, on any page, or in any API response, by design.
FIRM means the aircraft count and the date are both published. SOFT means one of the two is secondary reporting.
When the horizon passes with nothing installed the figure flips to SLIPPED, takes a hatched ground, and keeps showing the date that was promised. That flip is computed from the build date, so it does not wait for anyone to notice. No carrier is in that state today.
Only a published aircraft count enters the numerator. Amazon’s “hundreds more over time” on the Delta deal is not counted.
United is not the biggest next-gen share in the table and it is the fastest moving large fleet in it: 481 aircraft since Mar 14, 2025, express first, mainline catching up. It is also the only fleet anywhere with a public per-tail archive. That is why United is where the per-flight odds come from, and why every other airline’s curve gets read against this one.
481 aircraft equipped since Mar 14, 2025. This is the shape every other fleet in the table gets compared against.
See the timeline →One cell per 10 United aircraft: 48 of 181 cells lit, 481 of 1808 aircraft equipped.
One cell per 10 aircraft · 481 of 1,808 equipped (27%). The full floor is one cell per aircraft.
Open all 1,808 cells →60-route leaderboard · 57 cached routes in the optimizer.
Open the route optimizer →Alaska is instrumented too, one tier down: verified tails, no per-flight feed. Alaska’s rollout → · why that is a different kind of answer →
British Airways fitted five aircraft and stopped for the summer. A fleet-share percentage cannot tell you that on its own, because the number just looks small either way. The date next to it is the part that matters, which is why every row above carries one.
American signed Starlink for 500+ Airbus aircraft; the Boeing fleet stays on Viasat under the current deal. So American’s odds may never converge on 100%, and the aircraft type on your itinerary will keep mattering there long after United’s stops mattering. Southwest is the other version of this: 817 aircraft is years of work at any believable rate.
Delta and jetBlue picked Amazon Leo, from 2028 and 2027. Both score 0 for next-gen odds today and both have genuinely good, free, streaming-class Viasat right now. Those two facts are not in tension. They are the reason this site shows two numbers instead of one. Starlink vs Amazon Leo, compared →
Every row above is a fleet count and a published date — none of it says what the connection did once the door closed. If you flew any of these airlines this month, thirty seconds here is a data point nobody else has.
Reported Fleet and per-tail verification for United, Alaska and Hawaiian: unitedstarlinktracker.com and alaskastarlinktracker.com (@martinamps), 25 JUL 2026. Every other airline from public airline announcements, Jul 2026. Full credit and citation →